Member States set to miss 2030 target

The conversation in Brussels and in EPF ever since the launch of the European Green Deal and European Climate Law has been about the new EU carbon reduction ambitions: 50-55% reduction by 2030, game over by 2050. However, last week's report is a reminder that an important step in reaching those targets is to reach the current EU target of 20% reduction by [31 December] 2020. Long story short, the EU will probably just make it across the line, but only thanks to Covid-19, which, barring a multiannual depression, means a shortfall going forward that efforts from 2021 on will have to compensate.

The report underlines that the main culprit for the underperformance is road and air transport where improvements in energy intensity are wiped out and overtaken by major increases in sport utility vehicles and flights.

The part on buildings is confusing because commercial buildings are mixed up with 'services' and only residential gets specific analysis, but that's still significant as housing is 75% of the whole building equation. For residential the problem is a too-slow decline since 2010 largely due to the low renovation rate of 1% and the fact that most of that is for light or medium renovations locking in energy inefficiency for decades.

The report also states that the National Climate and Energy Plans submitted by the member states at end 2019 suggest that the EU will miss its current 2030 target (the one in the revised Energy Efficiency Directive of 2018, not the higher one in the European Climate Law now in front of Council and Parliament).

Full Secretariat report under epf20-57 of 27.07 2020